Negotiating has begun between the Big Three automakers and the United Autoworkers union, toward a new labor agreement. There's a lot of summary reporting available, here for example, outlining what is at stake in these talks.

It seems clear to me that there will be an agreement. The question to be answered is whether the eventual settlement will be seen as good enough to sustain the automakers, or even some of them — meaning, whether it will be suitably impressive to their stockholders and the investment community.

But, isn't it just as plain that these negotiations will shape the future of the UAW, too? Will the resolution will be good enough for the union to save its reputation as a force to be respected in the future?

It would be interesting to know more about their expectations in this, but UAW president Ron Gettelfinger isn't giving away much in these preliminary rounds: he claims the union has already made concessions, and he wants a four-year agreement that will hold the line on job and benefit cuts.

But, does the UAW leadership really accept the dire forecasts for Chrysler, Ford, and GM? Maybe they think there's more cash available to Ford and GM, as there is for Chrysler under new ownership. Or, maybe they think there will be federal government intervention.

The union would be wise to recall the last round of labor negotiations in the steel industry. Back in 2002-2003 the big steelmakers had already slashed thousands of jobs, LTV Steel had been closed, and Bethlehem Steel several dozen other were idle and/or in bankruptcy. The labor agreement reached then reset the wage structure, consolidated job classifications, and drastically cut employment levels even further than they had been trimmed by the faltering businesses. There was some federal role — in the form of import protection and pension bailouts — but the real revival of that industry came as a result of capacity consolidation and production-cost restructuring.

Is there a similar possibility in the auto industry? I don't think anyone knows — but I hope the negotiators are open to the possibility.