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Life and times in the world of metalcasting, and in the rest of the world, too.

How's that again?

The Federal Reserve Board cut interest rates earlier this week, triggering a quick and exuberant run up in equity markets. Investors see the availability of lower-cost capital as reason to expect a new burst of business expansions, hence the rise in stock markets. Recall that this happy reversal followed several months of listless markets and tension over the collapse of several big mortgage lenders.

But, predictably, the after-action reports in the financial press found reason for gloom in all the good news. To those analysts and writers, all good news is really bad news. And all bad news is cause for panic.

You see, the prospect of weaker U.S. currency means that global exchange rates may begin to reverse, and that may mean … well, let me quote the Wall Street Journal: "After 16 years during which the U.S. mainly borrowed and bought while much of the rest of the world lent and sold, the global economy appears to be undergoing a fundamental shift. American exporters are finding eager overseas markets for their products."

That's right. All the fretting and carping about the surplus of foreign goods and the loss of a domestic industries may be outdated, and we have to worry about that, too. When was the last time we were allowed to believe that the U.S. trade deficit is a good thing?

The whole Journal column is worth reading, and instructive. There are many useful insights to understand and consider. But draw your own conclusions: any new advantage for domestic goods producers would be a benefit to metalcasters and other manufacturers who routinely list foreign competition as their chief concern. And, this renewed viability would put additional pressure on metalcasters to improve their production efficiencies and product qualities, etc. But, casting this as dire news is a stretch.

Don't rely on financial analysts and writers to convey the complexities that are the essence of their subject. Virtually every nugget of economic information is good news and bad news. There are advantages to be found in every development — unless you're looking only for bad news.
Published Thursday, September 20, 2007 8:26 PM by REB

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