It's been almost three months since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and precipitated a dramatic decline in the value of U.S. currency, and though our economic problems have only seemed to get wider, and maybe deeper, in scope — there remains a buoyant mood among manufacturers. For example, the Institute for Supply Management reports that U.S. manufacturing activity in November, while down slightly, still expanded for the tenth consecutive month because of strong new orders, production improvements, and the strength of exports. These details have been critical to demonstrating the economy is not in recession.

Moreover, the ISM is forecasting that the manufacturing sector will grow at three times the rate of the service sector in 2008. Whatever the problems in the U.S. economy, manufacturing appears to be shielded from them.

And, my own anecdotal evidence confirms this. All our reader polling indicates general confidence about 2008 prospects. I receive a surprising number of inquiries and comments from investors or their representatives, intimating they see great opportunities to place their money in U.S. manufacturing operations, like foundries.

The first hint I got that there was something going on with this came from a foundry owner, whose grin was obvious over the phone when he told me about his company's opportunities thanks to the weak dollar.

Free-trade skeptic Alan Tonelson has come along with a thoughtful column that takes the fizz out of this message. He goes after the export enthusiasts with a well-documented look at U.S. manufacturing exports, and links these ideas to his larger concerns about the corrosive effects of globalism on U.S. prosperity.

I don't agree with Tonelson much, but I'm willing to follow him a bit on this matter. I'm doubtful that export patterns can shift as quickly, and dramatically, as these outlooks suggest, and thus be credited for any strength in manufacturing.

But, one point I've picked up here and there – not well clarified anywhere — is that the decline in our currency makes domestically manufactured goods more affordable to domestic buyers, including some who have been buying foreign manufactured goods. And that might make all the difference.

It may not be the manufactured goods that are being exported, but the ones not imported, that keep manufacturing solid in 2008.