There was a lot of excitement and enthusiasm at CastExpo ’08 in Atlanta last week. No surprise there: metalcasters enjoy each others’ company, and the agenda is always filled with award ceremonies and other celebrations.

But, now that the show is over it’s important to recognize that there’s a lot of anxiety beneath the surface of all that is positive and encouraging for foundries and diecasters these days. Several of these "troubles" were brought to my attention as I wandered the Georgia World Congress Center, and one seems likely to emerge with some force in the coming weeks.

I’ve been writing about the rising costs for iron ore and steel scrap for months. The changing global landscape in those sectors is part of the story: ownership is consolidating, and high-volume consumers are locking up assets.

The other factor is demand. Unprecedented increases in raw steel production over the past four years have crowded the market for those inputs, making ferrous foundries compete with even wealthier buyers.

So, it was inevitable that coal would be the next commodity to present a crisis, and for U.S. ferrous foundries the coal crisis is underway.  Perhaps it has been developing for years, with the number of domestic suppliers declining in the face of rising environmental obligations.

Now, the remaining foundry coke manufacturers claim to be pinched by global demand for coal. There’s evidence of that, but it’s not persuasive to the steel casters I met, who’ll tell tales of upward price adjustments (“not surcharges,” they insisted) that are “out of track” with changes in coal supply.  There are tariffs on imports of Chinese coke, which only strengthens the hand of the domestic suppliers. Some of my correspondents plainly believe there is price-fixing going on by the coke suppliers, … a charge they’d rather not have to say out loud with so few suppliers available to them.

Some metalcasters have begun implementing their own surcharges in recent weeks, and that’s the advice of coke suppliers, too. “Pass it on.”  They can’t do it, the steel founders tell me: not in a market where demand for finished castings is fairly tenuous.

The coal and coke dilemma will soon mirror the iron ore and steel scrap markets, as steelmakers and speculators begin to stockpile ownership stakes, so this is a problem to watch closely. Who will do the watching? My contacts tell me they have some ideas for drawing attention to the situation, but that they’d appreciate more help from the American Foundry Society. Well, perhaps now that the show is over …