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Life and times in the world of metalcasting, and in the rest of the world, too.

The confidence game

Sometime earlier this week I noticed that reports and commentaries about ongoing financial issues had adopted a new catch-all term, “the global crisis.” It's accurate I guess: the financial reversal is global, in as much as anything is global. It certainly feels like a crisis to me. In most situations, however, this would be just about enough to convince me that all the serious concerns are over. Typically, once a general consensus descends on one subject, it’s time to embrace the alternative.

This seems to be Warren Buffet’s view, too.

Being an IRA/401K/CD/mutual-fund sort of person, I’m not really market “wise.” In truth, I’m no fan of Buffett; for my taste, he’s too free with advice about public polices that affect people who can’t afford to pay for the implications as easily as he can.

But, on market strategy he’s obviously informed. “A simple rule dictates my buying,” he writes. “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors.”

If I were more market-wise I would be an investor, because I believe that, too. And, the advice is sound even if “invest” is replaced with “spend” (a word-swap politicians seem fond of making), and this observation is directly relevant to the metalcasting industry. Castings are critical components of capital equipment and infrastructure, so any revival in economic activity is likely to spur demand for castings. Which is good news, of course, but also a reminder to foundries and diecasters that slow periods are the best times to make their own investments, in supplies and equipment.

Published Friday, October 17, 2008 2:44 PM by REB

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