Lots of smart people have been pondering the future of manufacturing lately, bringing forth big ideas about how to overcome its weaknesses and restore its dynamism. Generally, this is a good thing. Human nature needs inspiration, and aspiration. But, we need organization, too. After a year or so of promoting “green” and “clean” manufacturing, the Obama administration shifted to emphasizing a new “manufacturing framework,” which at least brings more recognizable objectives to the discussion. The policy is still filled with a lot of vague objectives, but it’s closer to reality than we’ve seen in the past year.

But, the big-ideas crowd still have plans for the future of manufacturing, and another vision headlines the current issue of Wired magazine.  There, techie theorists are encouraged to believe that everything that can be manufactured can be dreamed up and executed in a garage — presumably with the same horizon-stretching impact of Microsoft, famously founded in similar fashion in the recession of 1974-75.

I suspect this is a concept that investors and consultants will pick up eagerly. It’s low-cost, high-concept. It’s lean. It’s green. It’s pleasant. It’s even got some validity in terms of the potential for design of manufactured products, and the opportunities for small-scale production. But, to suppose that a manufacturing sector can be built around such concepts almost completely avoids two very big ideas that actually define manufacturing: supply and demand. Entrepreneurs are welcome to hatch concepts, but there is no promise anyone will ever buy them.

Redefining manufacturing as something other than a series of interdependent decisions and actions along a complex supply chain is interesting, and often necessary. But, there’s more to vision than a big concept. There has to be a realistic plan for getting from the present to the future.